"Consumerization of IT '
Between 1980 and 1995, the tools available to their employees by the companies were, in most cases, more advanced than they had at home.
This shift is reversed, there are about fifteen years, with the launch of the Web since 1995.
Since the early 2000s, this movement is accelerated, and today the majority of people in their homes and with them the tools more efficient than those they are pushing the door of their office .
Instead of complaining about this situation, I suggest instead of "positivity" and use it as an easy way to anticipate what will be the technologies that will be deployed in companies.
In computer science, as in many other areas, the rate of introduction of an innovation follows the famous bell curve, with the five categories of users:
- The innovators: they are on the lookout for anything new and accept the imperfections of the original tools. They are able to line up at an Apple store for 24 hours to be the first to buy a iPhone5 iPad2 or tablet. They are fewer in front of a shop that sales the latest Windows Phone!
- Early adopters: they do not hesitate to choose an emerging technology, even if still imperfect, in beta version.
- Most original: convinced by the early adopters, they will find normal to deploy tools that have already proven themselves.
- The late majority, they adopt a technology when over half the market will already be equipped and it will become difficult to justify its rejection.
- The laggards, they are a glory of being the last to adopt new tools.
The assumption made in this paper is that there is a significant gap between the Gaussian curves consumer and professional.
The challenge is to assess, tool by tool, use by use, the delay between these two curves: 1 year, 3 years, 5 years or more?
These Gaussian curves are too often used only to anticipate the arrival of new tools. They have, in my opinion, a role at least as important to predict ... abandonment of existing tools.This last point is crucial in the business, given the difficulty they have to give a solution installed, stable and well-controlled in-house.
Let's look at each of these two cases.
Anticipating the arrival of new technologies
This project into the future, it is the most exciting part of a technology watch, especially in the computer world!
Mobile workstations, high-speed LTE networks, servers in the cloud, enterprise social networking, SaaS ... We live in a great time in terms of innovation.
I am pleased that the delay between the arrival of a new technology in the public and the business tends to be reduced.
I will take one example, 18 months after the arrival of the iPad on the market and its spectacular success in the general public, the largest airline in the world, United Airlines, has decided to equip 11 000 drivers iPad, to replace a briefcase containing 17 kg of documents.
Anticipating the death of existing technologies
Become "undertaker" of solutions at end of life is not always the best job in the world, but it is an activity essential to avoid that companies also end up in a cemetery.
X25 networks, Windows PCs and office suites obese applications in client / server, master plans for five years ... the list goes on antiquities which it is urgent to separate.
As much as I am happy to see new technologies accepted more quickly by companies, as I am concerned when I see how the longevity of obsolete technology tends to increase.
The incredible resilience of the old messaging solutions that too many CIOs insist on managing in-house while it's been years that the public has moved on webmail in the Cloud is an example of great concern.
I had a nightmare last night: I saw in 2015 the "laggards" within the meaning of the bell curve, which continued to manage their own mail servers!
The second part of this analysis will focus on infrastructure and third party uses.
Between 1980 and 1995, the tools available to their employees by the companies were, in most cases, more advanced than they had at home.
This shift is reversed, there are about fifteen years, with the launch of the Web since 1995.
Since the early 2000s, this movement is accelerated, and today the majority of people in their homes and with them the tools more efficient than those they are pushing the door of their office .
Instead of complaining about this situation, I suggest instead of "positivity" and use it as an easy way to anticipate what will be the technologies that will be deployed in companies.In computer science, as in many other areas, the rate of introduction of an innovation follows the famous bell curve, with the five categories of users:
- The innovators: they are on the lookout for anything new and accept the imperfections of the original tools. They are able to line up at an Apple store for 24 hours to be the first to buy a iPhone5 iPad2 or tablet. They are fewer in front of a shop that sales the latest Windows Phone!
- Early adopters: they do not hesitate to choose an emerging technology, even if still imperfect, in beta version.
- Most original: convinced by the early adopters, they will find normal to deploy tools that have already proven themselves.- The late majority, they adopt a technology when over half the market will already be equipped and it will become difficult to justify its rejection.
- The laggards, they are a glory of being the last to adopt new tools.
The assumption made in this paper is that there is a significant gap between the Gaussian curves consumer and professional.
The challenge is to assess, tool by tool, use by use, the delay between these two curves: 1 year, 3 years, 5 years or more?
These Gaussian curves are too often used only to anticipate the arrival of new tools. They have, in my opinion, a role at least as important to predict ... abandonment of existing tools.This last point is crucial in the business, given the difficulty they have to give a solution installed, stable and well-controlled in-house.
Let's look at each of these two cases.
Anticipating the arrival of new technologies
This project into the future, it is the most exciting part of a technology watch, especially in the computer world!Mobile workstations, high-speed LTE networks, servers in the cloud, enterprise social networking, SaaS ... We live in a great time in terms of innovation.
I am pleased that the delay between the arrival of a new technology in the public and the business tends to be reduced.
I will take one example, 18 months after the arrival of the iPad on the market and its spectacular success in the general public, the largest airline in the world, United Airlines, has decided to equip 11 000 drivers iPad, to replace a briefcase containing 17 kg of documents.
Anticipating the death of existing technologies
Become "undertaker" of solutions at end of life is not always the best job in the world, but it is an activity essential to avoid that companies also end up in a cemetery.
X25 networks, Windows PCs and office suites obese applications in client / server, master plans for five years ... the list goes on antiquities which it is urgent to separate.
As much as I am happy to see new technologies accepted more quickly by companies, as I am concerned when I see how the longevity of obsolete technology tends to increase.The incredible resilience of the old messaging solutions that too many CIOs insist on managing in-house while it's been years that the public has moved on webmail in the Cloud is an example of great concern.
I had a nightmare last night: I saw in 2015 the "laggards" within the meaning of the bell curve, which continued to manage their own mail servers!
The second part of this analysis will focus on infrastructure and third party uses.
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